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| "The biggest story in the data is the dramatic growth of [US] solar energy, with a 30 percent increase in generation in a single year, which will allow solar and wind combined to overtake coal in 2024." [1] |
This pie chart and quote may be one of the last bits of promising US energy news we'll get for the next few years. Many colleagues have asked my opinion about the prospects for hydrogen in the US under the new administration. Here's a breakdown of what we already know, and my guess about what's to come.
Federal Energy Policy
The new federal energy policy can be summarized as a huge step backwards that prioritizes oil and gas while demonizing intermittent renewables [2]. This ignores the fact that solar and wind are the lowest cost power generation sources to bring online and operate, which is the primary reason they have grown so rapidly in recent years.
Mitigation of greenhouse gases and pollution are existentially crucial additional benefits of renewables, making them the logical focus for growth from both an economics and environmental perspective. But propaganda trumps cost of electricity, public health, casualty losses, and the future quality of life for coming generations in the current administration.
The new secretary of energy has parroted this policy, with additional emphasis on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the US. LNG is 85-95% methane, which is a 25 times more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide over 100 years (85 times more over 20 years). Gas leaks and intentional venting are prevalent sources of methane emissions from production, transport, and end use of LNG.
What About Hydrogen?
There is no mention of hydrogen whatsoever in any US energy policy documents released by the new administration. So what does that mean for federal policy regarding hydrogen? Let's connect some dots by enumerating a few key benefits of hydrogen in the energy sector:
- Hydrogen produces no greenhouse gases and no pollution of any kind when used to produce electricity with fuel cells. If burned in a turbine or other combustion engine, it produces some NOx (as all combustion processes do) that can be minimized with various design and operational parameters.
- Hydrogen can store energy at nearly unlimited scale from intermittent renewables when excess generation capacity is available, and be used to generate electricity when demand exceeds generation capacity.
- Hydrogen's unparalleled specific energy relative to any other conventional fuel enables high performance sustainable solutions across multiple mobile and transportation sectors (e.g., aviation, rail, maritime, trucking, etc.)
- Hydrogen provides unique energy resiliency and eliminates fuel logistics dependencies for remote or isolated regions.
Note that none of the above benefits are aligned with the new federal energy policies. Nor were they eight years ago when we saw this energy policy disaster unfold the first time around. Looking back at that timeframe may help make a clear-eyed assessment of what's to come.
The Path Ahead
Within this new reality, what is the future for hydrogen in the US? Regrettably, here are my predictions:
- Federal funding for hydrogen programs, including the hydrogen hubs, will be largely gutted. One potential exception is military applications where hydrogen addresses strategic defense and national security challenges that no other approach can match.
- States and local policies and funding will help in a few US regions. California will remain the hydrogen hotbed it has been for many years. Hawaii, New York, Pennsylvania, and parts of New England also have or may provide supportive policies for hydrogen. Texas will be a wildcard since there is much in place for hydrogen production, but may have fractured policies depending on the area (e.g., Gulf coast vs rural areas). However, many other states and locales already have policies that are hostile toward renewables and hydrogen, and will be emboldened to double down on derailing permitting and similar tactics with the new federal policies.
- Private sector funding for hydrogen systems and products has been extensive in some industry sectors and regions. Many of these hydrogen applications have demonstrated performance and economic viability at various commercial readiness levels. It's unlikely that private investors will walk away from sunk cost investments if there is an opportunity to get a reasonable return. The challenge is which global markets are the best targets if most of the US is off the table, which leads to my final prediction.
- Global regions will likely stay the course, or even accelerate hydrogen plans, as the US backs away. China will build on its lead as the largest producer and user of hydrogen and associated systems. The European Union, United Kingdom, India, South Korea, Japan, and Australia may find increased interest in new hydrogen projects in their regions with the drying up of US funds and incentives. The same for other countries and regions with established and emerging hydrogen programs such as Canada, South America, Middle East, Africa, and other countries in the Asia and Indo-Pacific regions.
[2] Executive Order, Jan 20, 2025.
[3] Secretarial Order, Feb 5, 2025.
Matt Moran is the Managing Member at Moran Innovation LLC, and previous Managing Partner at Isotherm Energy. He's been developing power and propulsion systems for more than 40 years; and break-through liquid, slush, and gaseous hydrogen systems since the mid-1980s. Matt was also the Sector Manager for Energy & Materials in his last position at NASA where he worked for 31 years. He's been a co-founder in seven technology startups; and provided R&D and engineering support to many organizations. Matt has three patents and more than 50 publications including the Cryogenic Fluid Management series. He also teaches courses, workshops, and webinars on liquid hydrogen systems.
